# Hydro Simulator, Central Croatia - Task List

## Task List: Hydro forecasting and warnings

Hopefully you have managed to go through the materials and design a weather image in your head. It is a lot of information to process, especially if you are not familiar with the terrain and climate of this area.

Figure 1: Forecasting area

### Precipitation and warnings

### #1 13:00 UTC

You are receiving a phone call from the fire brigade: "Water levels of Kupa and Korana are very high and they are still rising! We have prepared the sand bags, but we are not sure if we have enough!
When do you expect a peak of the water wave?

After midnight and next morning
The water level maximum should be expected after midnight and in early morning. But we need to keep an eye on the river level since the predicted maximum is constantly growing.

### #2

Do you think the water level will reach Emergency state level?

Yes.
Even though right now, according to the prognostic materials, it seems like the water level will stay just below the emergency level, it is important to notice two things. One is that the maximum water level is growing with each iteration for both rivers. And the second thing is to look at the measured level and compare it to the forecasted. While Kupa river is nicely following the predicted levels, Korana has a tendency to be above the prognostic level.

### #3 17:00UTC

A call from the mayor of Karlovac: "Water level in Kupa is very close to Emergency State level! When should we sound the alarm?

The alarm should be sound immediately.
The river levels, as we have already noticed are underrated. Another reason for the alarm is that the system is lingering above the area of interest longer than it should according to the prognostic material. You can see this if you compare prognostic 3h rainfall and radar data. This means more rainfall than anticipated and as a consequence, higher water levels.

### #4 19:30UTC

The precipitation in Karlovac area has stopped, when do you expect the highest water level?

Explain your answer!

The correct answer is 'Tomorrow during the day'
The maximum water level is yet to come. Even though the rain has stopped there is water in catchments and tributaries that is flowing to the main river system and will reach it in a couple of hours. After that the highest water level will be reached around noon the next day.

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